Welcome back, everyone. It's wintertime, so it's time to hammer out a few posts, starting with a Gold Predictions review. Gold Predictions are not meant to be easy calls. It isn't Gold (just say "Bold" in your head already!) to predict that Aaron Judge will hit 30 home runs; it's Gold to say he'll hit 60. The former isn't fun; we're looking for the latter. In 2022, Armchair Roto went 3/10 on Gold Predictions and ran that victory lap right on through 2023 by taking the year off, but we're back and better than ever. Time to grade 2024's ten Gold Predictions.
1. Jesus Sanchez enjoys a breakout season and hits 30 home runs.
Sanchez did not hit 30 home runs, but he hit 18 of them and unexpectedly stole 16 bases, so if I'm grading on a curve--and I am--I'll give half credit for that. (.5/1)
2. Carlos Correa has a career year.
The words "[h]e also has a reputation for being chronically injured,' which I so casually dismissed, echo in my mind right now. Correa was actually on pace to hit this projection before he was sidelined with plantar fasciitis. He hit .307 with 13 home runs, 51 runs scored, and 47 RBI in the first half. And though he only made 50 plate appearances in the second half, he hit .325 with another home run. Maybe I should have taken the health risks more seriously, but this was a generally good call and so I'm giving myself half credit again. (1/2)
3. Johan Rojas steals 50 bases.
With 35 bags in 363 plate appearances, it is clear that Rojas could do this were a better hitter. The season started out promising enough with 7 stolen bases over 91 plate appearances in April, but he earned less playing time as the season wore on and didn't top 55 PAs in a month after May. Exceptional defense couldn't overcome the liability of a .601 OPS. (1/3)
4. Chas McCormick goes 30/30
Boy were spirits high heading into 2024 ("Dusty's gone. The job's all his. Chas is going to shine brightly in 2024."). Chas battled injury and general suckery all season for his worst showing in four MLB seasons. (1/4).
5. Nelson Velasquez hits 40 home runs.
Oof. (1/5)
6. Jake Fraley is the most valuable Reds outfielder in fantasy.
As the owner of many Fraley shares in 2024 (He was my most owned player: 21 Shares | 61.8% of teams), I'll agree with what we all feel; the season was a disappointment. However, this call was not that far from being true. Per WAR, Fraley was the second most valuable outfielder in Cincinnatti with .9 WAR. Spencer Steer barely beat him with 1.3 WAR. If I hadn't already awarded myself two garbage half-points, I'd give one here, but... (1/6).
7. Yusei Kikuchi has another career year.
(2/7)
8. Dane Dunning is the most valuable Rangers starter
In hindsight, maybe soft-tossers whose ERA indicators suggest that a true performance level considerably worse than demonstrated aren't the best bet for performance improvement. Lesson learned. (2/8)
9. Christian Scott is a top 50 pitcher.
I was on Scott in 2023 before it was cool, drafting him on several Draft Champions squads. The message in Gold Predictions: "This kid is coming to the bigs in 2024. Get ready to open that faab wallet." And open it you did. Scott was one of the most expensive faab adds in 2024, going for triple digits in most leagues. After a real nice debut (6.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K), Scott had trouble consistently making good starts. He was sent back down to AAA and was ultimately sidelined with an elbow issue for the rest of the season. He'll miss 2025 while recovering from a hybrid Tommy John and internal brace procedure. (2/9)
10. Davis Daniel is a top 100 pitcher.
Who TF is Davis Daniel? (2/10)
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Thanks for reading!
- Russell
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